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A major dip for an Irvine ZIP
By CAMERON BIRD.
Orange County Register
Nov 8, 2008

Note: The average selling price of homes in 92603 has seen a major drop since a year ago.

Irvine has remained a relatively safe haven amid falling home prices, but one of the city's most lavish tracts has seen prices dip more than 50 percent since a year ago.

For the 22 days leading to Oct. 21, the middle-of-the-road sum of homes sold in the 92603 ZIP code dropped to $693,000, down from $1.6 million during the same time frame in 2007, according to DataQuick.

92603 encompasses a broad swath of price points. There's Shady Canyon, a gated community of custom-built homes no smaller than 3,000 square feet each; Turtle Rock, one of Irvine's first five villages founded in 1967; and Quail Hill, a newer village situated down slope from Shady.

Mark Boud, principal of Real Estate Economics in Irvine, said that a handful of low-priced sales in 92603 likely inflated the overall drop, rather than the data reflecting a colossally downward trend.

But no doubt, home sales prices have dragged down the average.

"This area has traditionally been a seven-figure area; now it's more of a six-figure area," said Boud. "It looks like it'll settle down around $900,000 over the next couple months."

And during the past six months, foreclosures have accounted for 21.4 percent - up from 6.2 percent a year ago - of all home transactions in 92603. Contrast that with 2006, when 92603 saw zero bank repossessions.

Boud forecast that foreclosures would "plateau" in the next six months, and then begin to level off. The high-end housing market, which had held its own, is now seeing the brunt of the credit crunch, he said.

According to some real estate agents, prices that seem close to bottoming out have cracked open a window of opportunity for buying into Shady Canyon, among other luxury communities.

"I am personally bullish on Shady Canyon and believe, long term, it will continue to perform well due to its amenity base and social draw," said Irvine real estate agent Jacqueline Thompson. "In five years, buyers will be priced out of the market for Shady."

Across Irvine, median prices of closed home sales during the 22 days leading to Oct. 21 declined 16.8 percent from a year ago. Citywide, 169 homes - 16 percent more than the same time last year - were sold.

Far exceeding a countywide trend, the number of homes in 92603 that were sold during that period was 170 percent higher than last year.

Still, not every ZIP code in Irvine is suffering. In 92620, median prices of closed home sales during the already-mentioned time frame grew 8 percent compared with last year's measure. That ZIP, which encompasses Woodbury, is stocked with new homes, said real-estate consultant Walter Hahn, which likely accounts for its stability.

"Where you want to be in a really bad market is close to high-paying jobs," said Boud. "Irvine is still probably one of the best places you can be."

cbird@ocregister.com or 949-553-2915